I spent a lot of time on this so you didn’t have to read the whole thing. A lot of people have asked me on Twitter how their particular state is doing. If you don’t live in New York, New Jersey, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and maybe California, there has been very little news about your state that gives real context about what the numbers mean. Headlines are allergic to context and the high-population states get all the attention because they show big numbers (because they are big states).
I like the red line, but I wonder if it's a good idea if it's "somewhat arbitrary." Is it more like "totally" arbitrary or closer to "I made a decision based on some averages and stats that are nebulous but close-ish?" Hospital capacity seemed like a good red line early on give the "flatten the curve" narrative, but that doesn't work state-wide. Big city hospitals can be way overloaded while the rest are quiet, leading the statewide capacity average looking fantastic. God, this data is complicated.
Perhaps I am misreading/misunderstanding, but you write:
"In every chart, I’ve added a red line. For cases, the line is 10 new cases per day per 100K residents. When cases rise above this line, it’s a sign that things *could* go very badly. For deaths, it is at 0.1 deaths per day per 100K residents (one death per million per day)."
It appears that the red line in the death charts is at 1 per 100K (per the y axis and title).
Enjoy the posts and your analysis. Am beginning to wonder whether most states are simply going to reach 400 to 800 deaths per million regardless of what they do, except if they are mostly rural or can otherwise be relatively isolated. The only issue is when it happens. Even if you get covid under control you can't eradicate it and it just needs an ember to start up again. We may be at the point where we can hopefully keep it from overwhelming the medical system and doctors have a better idea how to treat (though not cure) so that may play a role in lower mortality rates. Even in other countries like Spain and Israel we are seeing flare ups where things were seemingly "under control".
Your State's COVID Numbers In Context
I like the red line, but I wonder if it's a good idea if it's "somewhat arbitrary." Is it more like "totally" arbitrary or closer to "I made a decision based on some averages and stats that are nebulous but close-ish?" Hospital capacity seemed like a good red line early on give the "flatten the curve" narrative, but that doesn't work state-wide. Big city hospitals can be way overloaded while the rest are quiet, leading the statewide capacity average looking fantastic. God, this data is complicated.
Perhaps I am misreading/misunderstanding, but you write:
"In every chart, I’ve added a red line. For cases, the line is 10 new cases per day per 100K residents. When cases rise above this line, it’s a sign that things *could* go very badly. For deaths, it is at 0.1 deaths per day per 100K residents (one death per million per day)."
It appears that the red line in the death charts is at 1 per 100K (per the y axis and title).
Enjoy the posts and your analysis. Am beginning to wonder whether most states are simply going to reach 400 to 800 deaths per million regardless of what they do, except if they are mostly rural or can otherwise be relatively isolated. The only issue is when it happens. Even if you get covid under control you can't eradicate it and it just needs an ember to start up again. We may be at the point where we can hopefully keep it from overwhelming the medical system and doctors have a better idea how to treat (though not cure) so that may play a role in lower mortality rates. Even in other countries like Spain and Israel we are seeing flare ups where things were seemingly "under control".