I might be missing something, but you may have a typo --or math error-- when you say there is a "43% chance that even a single person on your plane has COVID".
Shouldn't it be 1 - (1 - 1100/1x10^6)^366 which is about 33% ?
Not to defend the CNN paragraph in the slightest, but it seems to me the mistake they're making is somewhat different then how you put it.
They said "for every million vaccinated people who fly, 100,000 could still become infected." That sounds to me like they're understanding 90% efficacy as something like, "90% of people are entirely immune, 10% of people the vaccine just doesn't work for some reason so are still vulnerable."
Which to my understanding is also wrong, but not ludicrous like "10% of all travelers have Covid." Of course then the problem is that they put it in such a way that it's easy to misunderstand it as "10% of all travelers have Covid," because they foregrounded the big number to make it sound alarming and didn't explain it further.
I might be missing something, but you may have a typo --or math error-- when you say there is a "43% chance that even a single person on your plane has COVID".
Shouldn't it be 1 - (1 - 1100/1x10^6)^366 which is about 33% ?
Not to defend the CNN paragraph in the slightest, but it seems to me the mistake they're making is somewhat different then how you put it.
They said "for every million vaccinated people who fly, 100,000 could still become infected." That sounds to me like they're understanding 90% efficacy as something like, "90% of people are entirely immune, 10% of people the vaccine just doesn't work for some reason so are still vulnerable."
Which to my understanding is also wrong, but not ludicrous like "10% of all travelers have Covid." Of course then the problem is that they put it in such a way that it's easy to misunderstand it as "10% of all travelers have Covid," because they foregrounded the big number to make it sound alarming and didn't explain it further.