Some further context for FL: our population of 65+ is over 4 million. The *entire* population of the state of Connecticut is around 3.5 million. So imagine CT, but the only people that live there are seniors.
There are, to date, about 600,000 unvaccinated seniors left in FL, and if you figure VE of what, a generous 80% (I'm pulling that number out of thin air)for those seniors fully vaccinated (and they were vaccinated early, as Brandon points out below, so effectiveness may be waning), you have about a million old people for the virus to bat around like a cat on catnip.
In short: FL is hard to pattern-match because its elderly population makes it an outlier state.
Two things you didn't address is that a very large proportion of new cases are in unvaccinated people and this variant is more transmissible. Imagine what these curves would look like without the vaccines.
Also the vaccine effectiveness wanes after about 8 months and earlier in the elderly. Israel is seeing the effects of their early and quick vaccination rate.
Some further context for FL: our population of 65+ is over 4 million. The *entire* population of the state of Connecticut is around 3.5 million. So imagine CT, but the only people that live there are seniors.
There are, to date, about 600,000 unvaccinated seniors left in FL, and if you figure VE of what, a generous 80% (I'm pulling that number out of thin air)for those seniors fully vaccinated (and they were vaccinated early, as Brandon points out below, so effectiveness may be waning), you have about a million old people for the virus to bat around like a cat on catnip.
In short: FL is hard to pattern-match because its elderly population makes it an outlier state.
Two things you didn't address is that a very large proportion of new cases are in unvaccinated people and this variant is more transmissible. Imagine what these curves would look like without the vaccines.
Also the vaccine effectiveness wanes after about 8 months and earlier in the elderly. Israel is seeing the effects of their early and quick vaccination rate.
I don't want to be cynical, but just eyeballing the curves, they seem consistent with the hypothesis that vaccines don't do much.
I appreciate getting these “every state’s Covid numbers” wrap ups. Very useful in understanding what is going on.