This is a monthly ongoing series looking at COVID numbers in each and every state across the US. I first did this in July and then again in August and will continue until it no longer makes sense to do it. One new thing this month is that I put together this chart showing the overall impact of COVID by region. This chart is going to inherently be a bit uneven since the Mountain, Plains states, and Upper NE regions are all pretty small compared to the other regions, which run between 50 million and 72 million in total population. But it’s a pretty good visual summary for how COVID has hit the different regions in the US.
Thanks for the newsletter as always. These case counts are being used for travel restrictions (or more specifically a 7 day average of new cases per 100,000 people), and I can't seem to find how the states are coming up with the numbers (NY & DC - 10 per 100,000; Chicago/CookCounty - 15 per 100,000; MA - 6; NM - 8; OH & KY - states with 15% positivity rate; not an exhaustive list). I can't find anywhere on the internet where these numbers are coming from. What am I missing?
Regarding the slight uptick in cases in Arizona: In Maricopa County (i.e. metro Phoenix), the last month has seen an increase in the share of new confirmed cases among age 0-19 from 15% of total cases to 25%. This is almost certainly due to the return to campus at ASU. Whether the numbers represent an actual surge of infections or just a very aggressive testing campaign by the university, I'm not sure. My guess is probably some of both. The good news is that those cases won't (directly) translate into deaths, since we've only had a total of 4 deaths under 20 years old out of about 5,000 total. Also, university students and employees are required to submit to randomized testing, so they're catching more asymptomatic cases that wouldn't be recorded otherwise.
Across other age demographics, cases are pretty flat and pretty low. Our total inpatient COVID census for the state is about what it was in mid-April when the sate started tracking. The ICU census looks even better, about 50% less than even the pre-surge level, and only about one-eighth the mid-July peak.
Every State's COVID Numbers in Context, September Edition
Lots of new cases, but deaths mostly falling. And excess deaths year-on year near zero. Time to relax all restrictions.
Thanks for the newsletter as always. These case counts are being used for travel restrictions (or more specifically a 7 day average of new cases per 100,000 people), and I can't seem to find how the states are coming up with the numbers (NY & DC - 10 per 100,000; Chicago/CookCounty - 15 per 100,000; MA - 6; NM - 8; OH & KY - states with 15% positivity rate; not an exhaustive list). I can't find anywhere on the internet where these numbers are coming from. What am I missing?
Regarding the slight uptick in cases in Arizona: In Maricopa County (i.e. metro Phoenix), the last month has seen an increase in the share of new confirmed cases among age 0-19 from 15% of total cases to 25%. This is almost certainly due to the return to campus at ASU. Whether the numbers represent an actual surge of infections or just a very aggressive testing campaign by the university, I'm not sure. My guess is probably some of both. The good news is that those cases won't (directly) translate into deaths, since we've only had a total of 4 deaths under 20 years old out of about 5,000 total. Also, university students and employees are required to submit to randomized testing, so they're catching more asymptomatic cases that wouldn't be recorded otherwise.
Across other age demographics, cases are pretty flat and pretty low. Our total inpatient COVID census for the state is about what it was in mid-April when the sate started tracking. The ICU census looks even better, about 50% less than even the pre-surge level, and only about one-eighth the mid-July peak.
Possible explanation for AZ’s uptick
https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavirus/covid-by-the-numbers-explaining-the-rise-in-covid-19-cases-in-arizona