Thanks for your great articles. You ask why the focus on Idaho and not Nevada. It's probably because Idaho has, gasp, a Republican governor and Nevada has, surprise, a Democrat as governor. Focusing on Nevada would not fit the narrative that COVID exists where Republicans are in control.
re: your conclusion: "but it’s incredibly concerning to see so many states (red and blue both, not that this should matter) where their current post-vaccine COVID surges are matching or exceeding their pre-vaccine COVID surges." -- yes, troubling, especially when vaccination rates are so high especially among the older population. With more than 65% of adults fully vaccinated (and higher in areas like NYC and SF and the older population in FL, etc), and many with natural immunity, you should see far smaller seasonal peaks. One data analyst (El Gato) has suggested that the window immediately after the first vaccination makes the individual MORE vulnerable. Other people have suggested that the vaccines are less effective than we've been led to believe. I'm particularly concerned that doctors are being silenced and vaccine related illnesses and side effects are being suppressed/not reported. I don't have an answer -- but I don't think the CDC is being transparent at all and that really concerns me, especially with the push for boosters and vaccinating children and not recognizing natural immunity.
Have you seen this site: https://covidestim.org/? In addition to estimates for actual infections, as opposed to just positive testes, it has estimates for percent ever infected. On interesting thing is that Florida's chart for % ever infected was much lower than many other states until the recent serge. CA, NJ, and NY all reached 40% by March whereas FL didn't reach 40% until late July which I think is about the time the delta really became dominant in the US. Maybe the reason FL got such a big serge is because relatively few of the population hadn't had Covid by the time delta hit?
For Oregon and Washington, I wonder whether breaking out into east and west would be revealing. The east and west halves of both these states have very different climate, population distribution, politics, and I think possibly different vaccination rates.
I think some states having bigger post-vaccine surges than pre-vaccine surges is only a little mysterious. If Delta is 2x as transmissible, you need ~50% of the population vaccinated or previously infected just to even it out. Add in people's behavior going closer to normal vs. last year, and immunity being only pretty good but not perfect against transmission, and it seems explainable.
Thanks for your great articles. You ask why the focus on Idaho and not Nevada. It's probably because Idaho has, gasp, a Republican governor and Nevada has, surprise, a Democrat as governor. Focusing on Nevada would not fit the narrative that COVID exists where Republicans are in control.
re: your conclusion: "but it’s incredibly concerning to see so many states (red and blue both, not that this should matter) where their current post-vaccine COVID surges are matching or exceeding their pre-vaccine COVID surges." -- yes, troubling, especially when vaccination rates are so high especially among the older population. With more than 65% of adults fully vaccinated (and higher in areas like NYC and SF and the older population in FL, etc), and many with natural immunity, you should see far smaller seasonal peaks. One data analyst (El Gato) has suggested that the window immediately after the first vaccination makes the individual MORE vulnerable. Other people have suggested that the vaccines are less effective than we've been led to believe. I'm particularly concerned that doctors are being silenced and vaccine related illnesses and side effects are being suppressed/not reported. I don't have an answer -- but I don't think the CDC is being transparent at all and that really concerns me, especially with the push for boosters and vaccinating children and not recognizing natural immunity.
Have you seen this site: https://covidestim.org/? In addition to estimates for actual infections, as opposed to just positive testes, it has estimates for percent ever infected. On interesting thing is that Florida's chart for % ever infected was much lower than many other states until the recent serge. CA, NJ, and NY all reached 40% by March whereas FL didn't reach 40% until late July which I think is about the time the delta really became dominant in the US. Maybe the reason FL got such a big serge is because relatively few of the population hadn't had Covid by the time delta hit?
Thank you. Just thank you.
For Oregon and Washington, I wonder whether breaking out into east and west would be revealing. The east and west halves of both these states have very different climate, population distribution, politics, and I think possibly different vaccination rates.
I think some states having bigger post-vaccine surges than pre-vaccine surges is only a little mysterious. If Delta is 2x as transmissible, you need ~50% of the population vaccinated or previously infected just to even it out. Add in people's behavior going closer to normal vs. last year, and immunity being only pretty good but not perfect against transmission, and it seems explainable.