There are only a few possible explanations as to how such a glaring error could have made it into such an important paper.
(1) It was intentional. In my wildest suspicious moments, I can't believe this is the case. But the reason is not that I don't believe those that brought the paper are too honorable to lie, but that the would-be lie was so poorly hidden.
(2) It was the result of sloppy science due to the people performing the research having an idea of what the outcome should be prior to beginning the research.
I think explanation 2 is likely because we have plenty of instances of this happening on the regular before COVID. Now the researchers aren't just trying to make the person paying them happy (by selectively interpreting in a convenient way), but a political stance formed around many COVID-related topics before the research began, and it became abundantly clear that there was only one correct view. If these researchers came to the "wrong" conclusion, then their livelihood could be ripped from them.
I don't know what to do to reverse these trends, but I do look forward to hearing your thoughts, as always.
I found this substack post illuminating on at least how I read most things now: https://climateer.substack.com/p/numbers . Nothing is trustworthy on its face anymore and honestly probably never was, at least down to the detail of individual numbers.
On the green/blue anecdote from the short: during the Civil War, an under-age volunteer would place a piece of paper with "18" written on it in in his shoe so that he could reply to a question about his age "Over 18".
What's most frustrating is Katelyn Jetelina doesn't even care there was a mistake made, nor that she repeated it. I would be mortified if I had spread incorrect information to a legion of trusting followers. I would also make sure I corrected the error, admitted my mistake, and try to uncover how it could have been made.
It's completely baffling that she does none of this. Not remotely concerned she's been duped by bad data, not remotely interested in getting correct data to her followers.
Unfortunately, I have lost trust with most public health experts. It seems like they just want to give themselves more power. The only ones I listen to are the ones who initially signed the Great Barrington Declaration. They said what was clear to the laymen - protect the vulnerable and don't try to stop society; it is unethical and impossible.
2 weeks after the first lockdown, my husband was lying in bed, depressed, as he saw his life's work crumbling because the lockdowns were stopping him from working. That was enough for me to realize that the lockdowns were unethical, harmful, and evil. One of the worst things one can do to an adult is take away his or her ability to earn a living and feed his or her family. We decided then that we would do whatever we could to live a normal life. My husband moved his business to a state in the USA that was not closing down his business category. We told our kids that they must go out every single day and exercise outside, even when it was illegal. (I live in Israel and he works in the USA and at certain points, it was illegal to go more than 100 meters from your home!!!) We encouraged them to meet friends.....
But, the damage that public health officials have caused is done. My husband has many sympathies for the anti vax movement because he saw how health officials pushhed a covid vaccine that had not been tested for long on people who were safe from covid. I gave birth a year ago and when it was time for routine shots, my husband asked me why I was giving them to our daughter. After all, we know doctors have lied to us about the covid vaccine. Maybe they are lying to us about these vaccines too. In the end, he agreed that there is enough data that regular vaccines are safe. But, we will never take what doctors say at face value again. We do not trust them.
There are only a few possible explanations as to how such a glaring error could have made it into such an important paper.
(1) It was intentional. In my wildest suspicious moments, I can't believe this is the case. But the reason is not that I don't believe those that brought the paper are too honorable to lie, but that the would-be lie was so poorly hidden.
(2) It was the result of sloppy science due to the people performing the research having an idea of what the outcome should be prior to beginning the research.
I think explanation 2 is likely because we have plenty of instances of this happening on the regular before COVID. Now the researchers aren't just trying to make the person paying them happy (by selectively interpreting in a convenient way), but a political stance formed around many COVID-related topics before the research began, and it became abundantly clear that there was only one correct view. If these researchers came to the "wrong" conclusion, then their livelihood could be ripped from them.
I don't know what to do to reverse these trends, but I do look forward to hearing your thoughts, as always.
I found this substack post illuminating on at least how I read most things now: https://climateer.substack.com/p/numbers . Nothing is trustworthy on its face anymore and honestly probably never was, at least down to the detail of individual numbers.
We are in an epistemology crisis.
On the green/blue anecdote from the short: during the Civil War, an under-age volunteer would place a piece of paper with "18" written on it in in his shoe so that he could reply to a question about his age "Over 18".
What's most frustrating is Katelyn Jetelina doesn't even care there was a mistake made, nor that she repeated it. I would be mortified if I had spread incorrect information to a legion of trusting followers. I would also make sure I corrected the error, admitted my mistake, and try to uncover how it could have been made.
It's completely baffling that she does none of this. Not remotely concerned she's been duped by bad data, not remotely interested in getting correct data to her followers.
It's completely antithetical to science.
Unfortunately, I have lost trust with most public health experts. It seems like they just want to give themselves more power. The only ones I listen to are the ones who initially signed the Great Barrington Declaration. They said what was clear to the laymen - protect the vulnerable and don't try to stop society; it is unethical and impossible.
2 weeks after the first lockdown, my husband was lying in bed, depressed, as he saw his life's work crumbling because the lockdowns were stopping him from working. That was enough for me to realize that the lockdowns were unethical, harmful, and evil. One of the worst things one can do to an adult is take away his or her ability to earn a living and feed his or her family. We decided then that we would do whatever we could to live a normal life. My husband moved his business to a state in the USA that was not closing down his business category. We told our kids that they must go out every single day and exercise outside, even when it was illegal. (I live in Israel and he works in the USA and at certain points, it was illegal to go more than 100 meters from your home!!!) We encouraged them to meet friends.....
But, the damage that public health officials have caused is done. My husband has many sympathies for the anti vax movement because he saw how health officials pushhed a covid vaccine that had not been tested for long on people who were safe from covid. I gave birth a year ago and when it was time for routine shots, my husband asked me why I was giving them to our daughter. After all, we know doctors have lied to us about the covid vaccine. Maybe they are lying to us about these vaccines too. In the end, he agreed that there is enough data that regular vaccines are safe. But, we will never take what doctors say at face value again. We do not trust them.